A sovereign never has just one future.
I’m Milo Gunasinghe, an emerging market sovereign credit strategist.
I’m also interested in political economy, technology and the choices that shape opportunity.
Illustrative scenarios. No market data or forecasts.
Who gets to own the future?
How housing, institutional choices and AI shape who can enter the future.
Read the essay ↗All writing ↗
Three rooms, one job: make the sovereign story clear enough to act on.
Most of the work sits where macro, politics, debt mechanics and market pricing collide. The value is in stripping it back to what moves the bonds, without losing the nuance that still matters for positioning.
A cleaner read on where sovereign risk is mispriced.
Debt sustainability and restructuring scenarios, relative value across sovereign and quasi-sovereign curves, and tactical ideas for benchmark and total-return money across emerging markets, from the frontiers up.
Fast context when a sovereign starts to crack.
What is actually moving, where the pressure points are, and why fixed income is reacting the way it is. Quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg and the Financial Times through the Sri Lanka crisis.
Where debt mechanics and market pricing finally meet.
Restructuring terms, recovery values, official-creditor dynamics and state-contingent instrument design, from Sri Lanka and the Maldives to Senegal, Ethiopia and Zambia.
Sri Lanka, before the consensus got there.
Flagged the external financing squeeze while the market was still pricing willingness to pay. Stayed with the story through the 2022 default, the domestic debt exercise, the official-creditor deals and the bondholder agreement.
Now the coverage is the post-deal trajectory: the new instruments, including the macro-linked bonds, and what the next leg means for the people who hold them. The same anatomy has since played out in Ghana, Zambia and Ethiopia, and in slow motion in Senegal. The toolkit travels.
Across emerging markets.
Deep in sovereign credit.
My experience spans Asia and CEEMEA, with particular depth in frontier sovereigns and debt restructurings. That breadth connects the view from Hong Kong with experience across Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
Restructurings & special situations
Sri Lanka, Senegal, Ethiopia and Zambia—from external financing pressure through creditor negotiations to the instruments that emerge from a deal.
Sovereign & quasi-sovereign value
Sovereign curves, state-owned issuers and new issues across emerging markets, including the risks that headline yield comparisons can miss.
Macro into credit
China policy, North Asian flows, Gulf issuers and the transmission of oil and trade shocks into sovereign credit.
Quantitative where it earns its place. In the room where it doesn't.
I test the market’s assumptions against the country’s financing needs, policy choices and debt terms. Models structure the questions; conversations and primary sources test whether those assumptions hold.
Debt sustainability and restructuring scenarios.
Scenario trees around an IMF baseline, recovery values across a range of exit yields, and the design of the instruments themselves, macro-linked bonds included.
Cross-market scorecards and technicals.
Relative value across sovereign and quasi-sovereign curves, plus the flows, positioning and supply picture that decides whether a good idea has a bid.
Roadshows, IMF meetings, country trips.
Annual circuits through London, Singapore and the US East Coast, more than seventy investor calls a year, repeat meetings in Washington, and time on the ground in the countries that matter.
Builds the research tooling, not just the research.
I build AI-assisted research tools for relative-value screening, client-view analytics and repeatable research tasks. They help surface comparisons and organise evidence, with the final judgement resting on the underlying analysis.
From London to Hong Kong. A global emerging-market perspective.
I studied political science and political economy at the LSE, then joined J.P. Morgan in London, working on rates and currencies across Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa. I later moved to Hong Kong as its sole Asia sovereign credit strategist.
Since 2023, I have built an Asia macro and sovereign credit franchise at a US investment bank, while continuing to cover African sovereign workouts. My work has been recognised in Institutional Investor’s sovereign debt strategy polls in both Asia and emerging EMEA.
My interests in political economy and technology also inform the essays published here.
Selected public references.
Selected coverage of my work on sovereign debt and emerging markets.
A question, a conversation,
or a different perspective.
For professional enquiries, media and speaking requests, or a response to something you have read here.
